November 12, 2009
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This week’s Ontario Ministry of Health Influenza Bulletin shows continuing increases across all metrics. Clinic hours have expanded, and the definition of “high risk” groups entitled to be vaccinated has expanded. Also this week, the CDC reported a cumulative total of 4,000 swine flu deaths.
The Ontario numbers continue to look grim:
- Nine new institutional influenza outbreaks were reported
- 212 hospitalized cases were reported from October 28 to November 4 as compared to 104 from October 21 to October 28
- Seven deaths caused by H1N1 were reported from October 28 to November 4
Here’s the overall picture:
October 31, 2009
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Checking out this week’s Influenza Bulletin, indications are that the Fall’s Swine Flu outbreak in Ontario is going to get worse before it gets better. Unfortunately, the vaccine is just starting to become available. This coming week, there will be 10 public clinics open in the greater Toronto area, but still only for those among the currently-eligible “high-risk” groups.
Sadly, two Ontarians died as a result of the virus this week. To date (pdf), including over the summer:
“Thirty deaths have been reported among confirmed cases. Almost all of these fatalities (26/28 or 87%) were hospitalized prior to death… Of the fatal cases, 73% (22/30) occurred in individuals over the age of 40 years… [and] 26 (87%) had underlying chronic medical conditions reported.”
So Evan Frustaglio is a very sad exception to the general rule.
Here’s some of this week’s data:
The graph below shows the total number of swine flu cases. The brown rising line on the left is the current situation (with 553 cases this week), and the green peak on the right is the data from the first swine flu wave this past summer.
This graph shows hospitalizations due to swine flu. It lags a bit because the relevant records have to wend their way into the relevant database, but you get the picture.
October 27, 2009
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The latest actual figures on Ontario Swine Flu are in Ontario’s weekly “Influenza Bulletin”. See below for some interesting data from last Friday’s edition.
While you’re perusing those, note that vaccine is on the way. The message from Deb Matthews, Ontario’s Minister of Health and Long-Term Care is: “Get vaccinated when it’s your turn.”
First in line:
- People under 65 with chronic conditions;
- Pregnant women;
- Healthy children 6 months to under five years of age;
- People living in remote or isolated communities;
- Health care workers; and
- Household contacts and care providers of persons at high risk who cannot be immunized or may not respond to vaccines.
Here’s the data for new confirmed cases. The big bump is the summer’s wave, the rising bars on the right are where we are today.
Here’s a view of how this Fall stacks up historically. That early-riser on the left is 2009. Not encouraging. Wash your hands, and go get vaccinated. Then wash your hands again.
June 11, 2009
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Ontario’s update yesterday brought the total number of cases in the province to 1,562 with two deaths, both fatalities having been people with underlying medical conditions. The number of people hospitalized has increased from 6 to 10 since our last update (no word on the turn-over in that number), some of whom do and some of whom do not have underlying medical conditions.
Notably, the World Health Organization finally gave up the ghost today and declared Swine Flu to be a Phase 6 pandemic (duh), but made sure to note that it’s not severe:
“At this early stage, the pandemic can be characterized globally as being moderate in severity,” WHO said in the statement. A spokesman added that the term pandemic was “measure of the spread of the virus, not the severity of the virus.”
So we have a historic, but not too scary, announcement. I guess the delay allowed some desensitization to the idea of a Phase 6 pandemic declaration. Meanwhile, lest you slip from panicked straight to complacent, here are the Ontario stats:
Some leveling-off on new cases, maybe: